U.S. industrial production slightly ahead in September compared to the same period in 2023. However, conditions in Europe are down and the monthly rate-of-change for the OECD Leading Indicator is mildly declining.
Industry-leading economic firm ITR Economics provides heavy-duty equipment market trends to help OEMs stay up to date on top industry information and insights, which can help them make better decisions in 2024.
The latest data reveals a mixed bag overall with U.S. industrial production slightly ahead in September compared to the same period in 2023. However, conditions in Europe are down and the monthly rate-of-change for the OECD Leading Indicator is mildly declining, which is suggesting longer-than-typical lead times.
The following provides a summary of key observations across 13 indicators and areas of industry that contribute to today's global economic conditions.
NOTE: All data for charts are supplied by ITR Economics.
US OECD Leading Indicator
The monthly rate-of-change for the US OECD Leading Indicator is mildly declining. More data is needed to confirm if this directional change will hold.
We are seeing a delayed reaction in the macroeconomic data relative to many leading indicators, suggesting longer-than-typical lead times. The preceding 16-month rising trend in the Indicator has yet to fully take hold in US Industrial Production.
US OECD Leading IndicatorITR Economics
Four Big European Nations Leading Indicator
The Four Big European Nations Leading Indicator monthly rate-of-change rose in August but has been generally trending horizontally.
Sluggishness in China’s economy, a major trade partner for Europe, has been a downside but recent Chinese stimulus could help given Europe’s nascent recovery.
Four Big European Nations Leading IndicatorITR Economics
US Construction Machinery New Orders
Annual US Construction Machinery New Orders rose in July to $51.5 billion, 6.9% above the year-ago level.
The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve will have a long and lagged impact on New Orders.
US Construction Machinery New OrdersITR Economics
US Mining and Oil Field Machinery Production Index
US Mining and Oil Field Machinery Production in the 12 months through August was 5.2% below the year-ago level.
Mining companies remain conservative on capex given heightened uncertainty, sluggish macroeconomic data, and still relatively high interest rates. Recent upward movement in industry utilization rates is a nascent green shoot.
US Mining and Oil Field Machinery Production IndexITR Economics
US Industrial Production
US Industrial Production in the three months through August was 0.2% above the year-ago level.
Lower-income consumers are struggling and interest rates have dampened capex, contributing to a general plateau in Production. Headwinds will linger in the near term.
US Industrial ProductionITR Economics
US Farm Machinery Shipments
US Farm Machinery Shipments in the 12 months through July were 2.8% below the year-ago level.
Weak agriculture commodity prices are a downside signal, while recently lowered interest rates are a potential upside.
US Farm Machinery ShipmentsITR Economics
US Heavy-Duty Truck Production
Annual US Heavy-Duty Truck Production in August was 0.8% above the year-ago level and is nearing year-over-year contraction.
Rising wholesale trade will likely keep recession in Production mild.
US Heavy-Duty Truck ProductionITR Economics
US Defense Capital Goods New Orders
Annual US Defense Capital Goods New Orders in July rose and were 4.0% below the year-ago level. New Orders are in a recovery trend.
Tensions continue to worsen overseas with no sign of cooling and the US continues to send military aid to Ukraine. New Orders will likely continue to rise.
US Defense Capital Goods New OrdersITR Economics
US Private Nonresidential Construction
US Private Nonresidential Construction in the three months through July totaled $187.0 billion, 4.4% above the year-ago level.
Downside pressure from high interest rates will negatively impact Construction in 2025; the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve will be a positive sign further out.
US Private Nonresidential ConstructionITR Economics
US Total Public Construction
Annual US Total Public Construction in July totaled $477.5 billion, 14.2% above the year-ago level.
Public Construction is slowing in growth. This sector is less interest-rate-sensitive than the private sector but does face some downside pressure from weaker tax revenue.
US Total Public ConstructionITR Economics
US Mining Production
Annual US Mining Production in the 12 months through August was 0.4% above the year-ago level. Hard rock mining is declining while oil and gas extraction is rising.
Quarterly Production is below year-ago levels, signaling that further downward pressure is likely.
US Mining ProductionITR Economics
Germany Industrial Production
Germany Industrial Production in the three months through July was 5.6% below the year-ago level.
The Germany Motor Vehicle Production Index is down 10.8% over that same time, a drag on the industrial sector.
Germany Industrial ProductionITR Economics
Europe Agricultural and Forestry Machinery Production
Europe Agricultural and Forestry Machinery Production in the 12 months through July was 16.7% below the year-ago level.
High energy costs in the EU are a likely downward pressure on Production as farmers grapple with rising costs.
Europe Agricultural and Forestry Machinery ProductionITR Economics
