This month's data indicates construction machinery new orders had a mild uptick in growth, coming in 12.5% above the year-ago level. The growth rate has been oscillating in the low double-digits for more than a year.
Industry-leading economic firm ITR Economics provides heavy-duty equipment market trends to help OEMs stay up to date on top industry information and insights, which can help them make better decisions in 2024.
In our continued analysis, the latest data indicates that U.S. construction machinery new orders showed a mild uptick in growth, coming in 12.5% above the year-ago level. The growth rate has been oscillating in the low double-digits for more than a year. However, tight borrowing conditions suggest further downside pressure on machinery demand.
The following provides a summary of key observations across 13 indicators and areas of industry that contribute to today's global economic conditions.
NOTE: All data for charts are supplied by ITR Economics.
US OECD Leading Indicator
The monthly rate-of-change for the U.S. OECD Leading Indicator rose mildly in March.
Rise in the Indicator is a positive sign, but monetary policy suggests further downside pressure.
U.S. OECD Leading IndicatorITR Economics
Four Big European Nations Leading Indicator
The Four Big European Nations Leading Indicator monthly rate-of-change held steady in March.
While the EU’s industrial sector is contracting overall, there is tentative accelerating growth in the industrial sector for the UK.
Four Big European Nations Leading IndicatorITR Economics
US Construction Machinery New Orders
U.S. Construction Machinery New Orders in the 12 months through February had a mild uptick in growth, coming in 12.5% above the year-ago level. The growth rate has been oscillating in the low double-digits for more than a year.
Lagging nonresidential construction is slowing in growth while single-unit residential construction is accelerating. Tight borrowing conditions suggest further downside pressure on machinery demand.
U.S. Construction Machinery New OrdersITR Economics
US Mining & Oil Field Machinery Production Index
Mining and Oil Field Machinery Production in the 12 months through March was 0.5% below the year-ago level.
While extraction of oil and gas remains relatively strong, especially given various global tensions that are amplifying energy demand from domestic sources, businesses are not likely to invest in Machinery Production in the near term due in part to high interest rates and regulatory hurdles.
U.S. Mining and Oil Field Machinery Production IndexITR Economics
US Industrial Production
U.S. Industrial Production in the three months through March was 0.3% below the same period one year ago.
While the US industrial sector is contending with elevated interest rates and a slowdown in manufacturing, decline will likely be mild in the near term as there are upside pressures from onshoring, government spending and the high-tech sector.
U.S. Industrial ProductionITR Economics
US Farm Machinery Shipments
U.S. Farm Machinery Shipments in the 12 months through February were 16.1% below the year-ago level.
The annual rate-of-change, while still negative, is rising; further rise is likely in at least the near term.
U.S. Farm Machinery ShipmentsITR Economics
US Heavy-Duty Truck Production
Annual U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck Production in the 12 months through March was 2.2% above the year-ago level, but evidence suggests mild contraction ahead.
Downward pressures on Heavy-Duty Truck Production stem, in part, from a weak freight market and slowing growth in consumer and business-to-business spending.
U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck ProductionITR Economics
US Defense Capital Goods New Orders
U.S. Defense Capital Goods New Orders in the 12 months through February totaled $163.9 billion. Annual New Orders have been moving lower in recent months.
The U.S. Congress recently passed a $95 billion foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan; this will likely present an upside opportunity for New Orders.
U.S. Defense Capital Goods New OrdersITR Economics
US Private Nonresidential New Construction
U.S. Private Nonresidential Construction in the three months through February was 17.4% higher than in the same period one year prior.
Nonresidential construction is generally slowing in growth partly from business hesitancy and elevated interest rates. Certain segments, such as Manufacturing Construction, are outperforming the overall market due in part to government spending.
U.S. Private Nonresidential New ConstructionITR Economics
US Total Public Construction
U.S. Total Public Construction in the 12 months through February totaled $449.1 billion, 17.8% above the year-ago level. Growth may soon begin to decelerate.
While both are at record-high annual levels, U.S. State and Local Infrastructure Construction is accelerating in growth while U.S. Federal Infrastructure Construction is slowing in growth.
U.S. Total Public ConstructionITR Economics
US Mining Production
Annual U.S. Mining Production through February was 2.5% above the year-ago level. Annual Production has plateaued with a slight downward bias.
Coal Mining and Nonmetallic Mining are in decline. There is further downward pressure from China as they contend with their challenged property sector, which in turn negatively impacts U.S. iron mining demand.
U.S. Mining ProductionITR Economics
Germany Industrial Production
Germany Industrial Production in the three months through February was 4.7% below the year-ago level.
Further decline is likely in the near term as Germany grapples with high interest rates and a plateau in exports. Germany is also still struggling to get energy costs under control.
Germany Industrial ProductionITR Economics
Europe Agricultural & Forestry Machinery Production
Annual Europe Agricultural and Forestry Machinery Production in February was 4.8% below the year-ago level.
The quarterly rate-of-change, at -15.7%, suggests that decline will persist in at least the near term.
Europe Agricultural and Forestry Machinery ProductionITR Economics
