January's U.S. heavy-duty truck production was 2.6% above the year-ago level, though growth is slowing. Experts say further decline is likely, given general decline in wholesale trade coupled with waning revenue within the truck transportation sector.
Industry-leading economic firm ITR Economics provides heavy-duty equipment market trends to help OEMs stay up to date on top industry information and insights, which can help them make better decisions in 2024.
In our continued analysis, recent data shows January's annual U.S. heavy-duty truck production at 2.6% above the year-ago level, though this growth is slowing. Experts indicate that further production decline is likely, given the general decline in wholesale trade coupled with waning revenue within the truck transportation sector.
The following provides a summary of key observations across 13 indicators and areas of industry that contribute to today's global economic conditions.
NOTE: All data for charts are supplied by ITR Economics.
US OECD Leading Indicator
The monthly rate-of-change for the U.S. OECD Leading Indicator rose further in January.
The rising trend in the Leading Indicator rate of change, while relatively weak, aligns with recent acceleration in U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) but is counter to the trends in the industrial sector.
U.S. OECD Leading IndicatorITR Economics
Four Big European Nations Leading Indicator
The Four Big European Nations Leading Indicator monthly rate of change declined for a second month in January.
Europe Industrial Production has not followed the path suggested by the Leading Indicator in recent quarters. Recession in Production is likely to persist in at least the near term.
Four Big European Nations Leading IndicatorITR Economics
US Construction Machinery New Orders
U.S. Construction Machinery New Orders in 2023 were 11.9% above the 2022 level. Annual Production is rising at a slowing pace.
New Orders face downside pressure from prior weakness in the housing market, which leads New Orders.
U.S. Construction Machinery New OrdersITR Economics
US Mining & Oil Field Machinery Production Index
Annual U.S. Mining and Oil Field Machinery Production dropped below the year-ago level.
Further decline in annual Production is likely, as the Dallas Federal Reserve Energy Survey indicated that 57% of oil and gas firm respondents expected their capex to either remain near 2023 levels or decrease in 2024.
U.S. Mining & Oil Field Machinery Production IndexITR Economics
US Industrial Production
Industrial Production in the three months through January was 0.3% above the same period one year ago. Quarterly Production has been vacillating around the same level for several quarters.
Elevated corporate cash holdings are a buffer against the downside effects of contractionary monetary policy, but mild decline is likely ahead.
U.S. Industrial ProductionITR Economics
US Farm Machinery & Equipment Shipments
U.S. Farm Machinery and Equipment Shipments in 2023 were 20.6% below the 2022 level.
We are seeing signs that the pace of decline in Shipments is likely to let up. The quarterly rate of change has risen to -12.6%. Tight lending conditions remain a downward pressure.
U.S. Farm Machinery & Equipment ShipmentsITR Economics
US Heavy-Duty Truck Production
Annual U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck Production in January came in 2.6% above the year-ago level, though growth is slowing.
Further decline in annual Production is likely, given general decline in wholesale trade coupled with waning revenue within the truck transportation sector.
U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck ProductionITR Economics
US Defense Capital Goods New Orders
U.S. Defense Capital Goods New Orders in 2023 totaled $165.2 billion, 9.1% above the 2022 level.
Decline in U.S. Federal Government Tax Receipts poses a potential constraint on future defense spending. Further foreign aid could extend the rising trend in New Orders.
U.S. Defense Capital Goods New OrdersITR Economics
US Private Nonresidential New Construction
U.S. Private Nonresidential Construction in the fourth quarter of 2023 came in 22.3% above the fourth quarter of 2022. The quarterly growth rate has ticked down.
Slowing growth is probable in the quarters ahead as slowing retail and business-to-business spending impact expansion plans.
U.S. Private Nonresidential New ConstructionITR Economics
US Total Public Construction
Annual U.S. Total Public Construction in 2023 totaled $437.7 billion, 16.3% above the year-ago level.
Funding from the Infrastructure and Inflation Reduction Acts is spurring accelerating growth. Further rise is likely until these funds taper.
U.S. Total Public ConstructionITR Economics
US Mining Production
Annual U.S. Mining Production ticked down in January and was 4.2% above the year-ago level.
Oil and gas extraction is rising while mining (excluding oil and gas) declines. Stringent environmental regulations and decline in the industrial sector pose downside pressures.
U.S. Mining ProductionITR Economics
Germany Industrial Production
Germany Industrial Production in the final quarter of 2023 was 4.1% below the fourth quarter of 2022.
Further decline is likely given ongoing economic problems in China, a major trade partner for Germany. Elevated interest rates in the EU also signal continued recession for Production.
Germany Industrial ProductionITR Economics
Europe Agricultural & Forestry Machinery Production
Annual Europe Agricultural and Forestry Machinery Production in 2023 was 1.1% above the 2022 level.
Environmental regulations within the EU surrounding agriculture may dampen demand for Production in the coming years.
Europe Agricultural & Forestry Machinery ProductionITR Economics
